Yog tias koj tau xa cov khoom thauj los ntawm Tebchaws Europe mus rau Asmeskas dhau rau lub hlis dhau los, tej zaum koj yuav tsis xav tau leej twg los qhia koj tias nws tau caij tsheb qus. Ib lub lim tiam, tus nqi yog zawv zawg zoo li lub pob zeb greased. Tom ntej no, cov neeg nqa khoom yog nplawm ntawm kev them nyiaj kub ceev thiab rub lub peev xwm sab laug thiab sab xis. Thiab qee qhov ntawm qhov nruab nrab, txhua tus tsuas yog sim ua kom lawv cov ntim tsis tau dov.
Zoo, ntawm no yog qee qhov xov xwm zoo: tej yam thaum kawg tau daws.
Tom qab thawj peb lub hlis twg uas feem ntau hauv kev lag luam xav tsis nco qab, lub peev xwm ntawm sab hnub poob transatlantic tau pib nrhiav qee qhov sib npaug. Wb tham txog qhov tshwm sim, qhov twg peb nyob tam sim no, thiab -vim tias tej zaum yog vim li cas koj nyob ntawm no - nws txhais tau li cas rau koj cov saw hlau.
Dab tsi hauv ntiaj teb tshwm sim hauv Q1?
Cia peb pib nrog cov xov xwm phem ua ntej, cia li tawm ntawm txoj kev. Thawj peb lub hlis ntawm 2026 yog qhov nyuaj ntawm txoj kab kev lag luam no. Kev xa tawm tsuas yog qis dua 3% piv rau tib lub sijhawm xyoo tas los- uas yog kwv yees li 40,000 TEUs uas tsis txav hla lub pas dej. Qhov xwm txheej tus nqi kuj tsis zoo nkauj thiab. Lub Thawv Kev Lag Luam Kev Lag Luam Tus Nqi Index rau Europe-North America txoj kev tau swb txij li thaum pib ntawm 2025, thiab nws tseem swb mus rau thaum ntxov 2026-down rau 84 lub Ib Hlis, tom qab ntawd 83 hauv Lub Ob Hlis.
Cov neeg nqa khoom tau los ntshav. Hapag-Lloyd tau tshaj tawm US $ 174 lab kev lag luam poob hauv nws txoj haujlwm ua lag luam rau lub quarter, thiab CEO tsis muaj qab zib rau nws: qhov kev cuam tshuam ntawm transatlantic yog ib feem ntawm qhov teeb meem. Thaum tus neeg nqa khoom loj hais tias txoj kev lag luam "tsis muaj peev xwm muab tau ntawm tus nqi tsim nyog," koj paub tias yam tsis zoo.
Yog li cov neeg nqa khoom ua dab tsi? Ib yam uas lawv ib txwm ua thaum lej tsis ua haujlwm: lawv rub lub peev xwm. Thiab tsis yog me ntsis xwb. Nyob rau hauv 12 lub hlis dhau los, tus naj npawb ntawm cov kev pabcuam transatlantic txhua hli poob los ntawm 55 mus rau 50, nrog cov kev pabcuam transatlantic ntshiab poob los ntawm 44 mus rau 38. Qhov ntawd yog rau tag nrho cov kev pabcuam ploj mus. Thaum lub Plaub Hlis, Hapag-Lloyd tau kaw nws qhov kev pabcuam CES transatlantic nkaus -7 lub nkoj, 2,700 TEUs txhua, ploj mus.
Tom qab ntawd lub Plaub Hlis tuaj, thiab txhua yam hloov pauv
Ntawm no yog qhov uas zaj dab neeg tau nthuav. Nyob ib ncig ntawm lub Plaub Hlis, qhov chaw cov nqi ntawm kev lag luam sab hnub poob transatlantic ua rau muaj kev xav tsis thoob. Thiab nws tsis yog los ntawm qhov kev thov tam sim ntawd - nws los ntawm ob yam. Ua ntej, kev txo peev xwm uas peb nyuam qhuav tham txog thaum kawg tau siv. Qhov thib ob, Strait of Hormuz tsis sib haum xeeb ua rau muaj nthwv dej ntawm cov roj thaum muaj xwm txheej ceev los ntawm zoo nkauj npaum li txhua tus neeg nqa khoom loj nyob rau ntawd, uas thawb cov nqi rov qab.
Cov lej qhia zaj dab neeg. Raws li cov ntaub ntawv tshiab los ntawm NYSHEX's New York Freight Index, transatlantic sab hnub poob tus nqi nce 12% lub lis piam dhau los mus txog US2,253per40ftcontainer[reference:6].Toputthatinperspective,thelowpointofthepast12monthswasbackinNovemberatjustUS2,253pua40ftcontainer yog[siv:6].Toputthatinperspective,qhov lowpointofthepast12lub hlis tau rov qab rau lub Kaum Ib Hlis Ntuj1,342 ib. Qhov ntawd yog ib qho kev hloov pauv zoo nkauj heev.
Drewry cov ntaub ntawv qhia ib zaj dab neeg zoo sib xws. Raws li ntawm nruab nrab -Lub Tsib Hlis, Lub Ntiaj Teb Container Index tau nce 12% tag nrho, nrog rau cov nqi transatlantic nce 3% hauv ib lub lis piam xwb. Thiab thaum qhov ntawd yog ib qho me me me me piv rau txoj kab transpacific lossis Asia-Europe txoj kab, qhov tseeb tias nws tau tshwm sim txhua qhov - hauv txoj kab kev lag luam uas yog qhov yooj yim flatlining - hais lus ntim.
Tab sis ntawm no yog dab tsi ntse shippers saib tam sim no
Tsuas yog thaum koj xav tias koj tau txais qhov kev lag luam no pom, cov neeg nqa khoom pov pob nkhaus. ONE tsis ntev los no tau xa nws cov nkoj loj 13,700 TEU, IB TUG txaus siab, ntawm kev lag luam transatlantic. Qhov ntawd yog qhov tseem ceeb tshaj plaws - cov nkoj feem ntau ntawm txoj kab no feem ntau khiav hauv 6,000 txog 10,000 TEU ntau yam. Thiab cov neeg xa mus rau hauv av twb tau saib ze. Ib tus kws tshaj lij hauv kev lag luam hais rau The Loadstar nws cia siab tias yuav muaj peev xwm ntxiv los txo qis qis rau cov nqi, coj lawv mus ze rau lub Ob Hlis theem ib zaug tag nrho cov nqi ntxiv.
Txhais? Tsis txhob xis nyob heev. Lub khw no tseem muaj qee qhov wiggles sab laug hauv nws.
Yog li qhov no txhais li cas rau koj cov khoom xa tuaj?
Cia peb ua tiag tiag: nyeem txog kev hloov pauv ntawm tus nqi thiab kev hloov peev xwm yog txhua yam zoo thiab zoo, tab sis qhov koj xav tau tiag tiag yog seb koj lub ntim yuav txav mus li cas thiab seb koj puas yuav mus rau qhov muag tsis pom los ntawm cov nqi npaj txhij txog.
Ntawm no yog cov lus teb ncaj ncees: txoj kab kev lag luam transatlantic tseem muaj kev hloov pauv ntau dua li ib xyoos dhau los, thiab tej zaum nws yuav yog ib ntus. Teem sijhawm kev cia siab rau ntawm txoj kev mus rau sab hnub poob tau poob rau hauv nruab nrab -40% ntau ntawm qee qhov kev sib hloov, txhais tau tias koj txoj hauv kev ntawm kev caij nkoj du yog- cia li hais-tsawg dua li lub npib pov tam sim no. Thaum cov kev pabcuam raug muab tso tseg lossis rov teem sijhawm, thiab thaum lub nkoj xa tawm mus, koj qhov kev npaj ua tib zoo xa tuaj tuaj yeem xaus rau kev caij nkoj tom ntej yam tsis muaj kev ceeb toom ntau.
Tias yog vim li cas leej twg koj ua haujlwm nrog tseem ceeb tam sim no ntau dua li nws tau ua rau lub hlis dhau los. Qhov no tsis yog kev lag luam rau "teeb nws thiab tsis nco qab nws" logistics.
Nov yog qhov peb pab tiag tiag
Ntawm XMAE Logistics, peb tsis yog saib cov kev lag luam no hloov ntawm sab nraud. Peb yog tsoomfwv - tso cai xa khoom xa tuaj nrog NVOCC tag nrho, AEO daim ntawv pov thawj qib siab, thiab lub network thoob ntiaj teb tshaj 100 tus neeg sawv cev txawv teb chaws. Peb txav cov khoom thauj los ntawm dej hiav txwv, huab cua, kev tsheb ciav hlau, thiab txoj kev-thiab peb muaj kev sib raug zoo, cov ntaub ntawv, thiab ntawm - pab neeg hauv av kom paub tseeb tias koj cov khoom xa tuaj tsis txhob poob rau hauv kev kub ntxhov.
Peb qhov chaw nres nkoj kev sib raug zoo muab peb qhov tseem ceeb ntawm kev thauj mus los ntawm ntau dua 30 lub rooj vag loj thoob ntiaj teb, suav nrog Rotterdam (lub hub tseem ceeb rau kev thauj mus los hauv Atlantic). Thiab peb pab neeg kev lis kev cai tswj hwm 99.8% kev ua tiav ntawm Tuam Tshoj-EU-USA txoj kev, yog li koj cov ntaub ntawv tsis dhau los ua qhov cuam tshuam koj lub sijhawm xa khoom.
Peb tseem nyob hauv Xiamen, ib qho ntawm Tuam Tshoj cov chaw nres nkoj ua haujlwm tau zoo tshaj plaws, nrog kev tshem tawm kev lis kev cai thiab kev sib txuas tau zoo heev. Qhov ntawd txhais tau hais tias thaum ib yam dab tsi mus rau sab nraud ntawm kev caij nkoj hla hiav txwv Atlantic- caij nkoj dawb paug, lub sijhawm hloov pauv, qhov chaw nres nkoj kaw - peb muaj qhov hloov pauv yooj yim rau pivot. Tej zaum qhov ntawd txhais tau tias hloov mus rau qhov rooj sib txawv. Tej zaum nws txhais tau hais tias sib xyaw dej hiav txwv thiab huab cua kom tau raws li lub sijhawm kaw. Txawm nws yuav siv li cas, peb xam nws ua ntej nws raug nqi koj cov nyiaj.
Peb tsis ua surprise surcharges los yog zais nqi, ib yam nkaus. Peb cov lus hais yog tag nrho - suav nrog, thiab peb tau pob tshab txog txhua kab lus. Hauv kev ua lag luam uas cov neeg nqa khoom tau ntim cov bunker thaum muaj xwm txheej ceev rau sab laug thiab sab xis thiab FMC tab tom thawb rov qab rau kev zam, paub meej tias koj them dab tsi -thiab vim li cas- tsis yog khoom kim heev. Nws yog qhov tsim nyog.
Ob peb yam uas yuav tsum nco ntsoov
Yog tias koj tab tom npaj kev xa khoom xa mus rau transatlantic rau ib nrab xyoo, ntawm no yog qhov peb xav qhia:
Phau ntawv ntxov. Lub peev xwm tseem raug tswj kom nruj, thiab cov neeg nqa khoom tau txais txiaj ntsig zoo ntawm kev caij nkoj los tiv thaiv tus nqi. Yog tias koj tos kom txog rau thaum kawg, koj yuav pom koj tus kheej sib tw rau ntau qhov chaw me me.
Tsis txhob cia siab rau qhov chaw tus nqi. Yog lawm, lawv zoo li ntxim nyiam thaum tus nqi qis -tab sis thaum lub lag luam tig (thiab nws tig nrawm), qhov chaw cov nqi tuaj yeem dhia 25% thaum hmo ntuj. Cov nqi cog lus muab rau koj qhov kev kwv yees, thiab qhov kev kwv yees tau tsim nyog them rau thaum lub sijhawm teem caij sib cav no.
Khaws ib lub qhov muag ntawm ib qho xwm txheej. Lub nkoj loj ntawd lawv nyuam qhuav tso rau ntawm txoj kab tuaj yeem hloov pauv cov khoom siv -xav kom sib npaug ntawm txoj hauv kev uas tseem tsis tau ua tiav. Peb tab tom saib nws txhua hnub, thiab peb yuav kho peb cov tswv yim kom haum.
Cov kab hauv qab
Kev lag luam sab hnub poob hla hiav txwv muaj qhov nyuaj Q1. Lub peev xwm tau rub, tus nqi poob qis, thiab cov neeg nqa khoom tau them nyiaj. Tab sis lub Plaub Hlis tau coj rov qab los- tsav los ntawm kev qhuab qhia muaj peev xwm thiab cov roj ntxiv uas tsis muaj leej twg xav tau tiag tiag-thiab May tau pom tej yam ruaj khov ntawm ntau qib kev noj qab haus huv.
Puas yog qhov volatility tag nrho qab peb? Tej zaum tsis yog. Kev ua lag luam tseem tsis muaj zog. Teem sijhawm kev ntseeg tau tseem tshee. Thiab cov neeg nqa khoom tseem tab tom ua si chess nrog lawv cov nkoj xa tawm.
Tab sis ntawm no yog qhov: volatility tsis tas yuav txhais tau tias tsis muaj kev cia siab rau koj txoj kev lag luam. Tsis yog thaum koj ua haujlwm nrog tus khub logistics uas nyob thiab nqus cov khoom no txhua hnub. Peb tau tsiv cov khoom thauj los ntawm COVID, kev tawm tsam chaw nres nkoj, kev cuam tshuam ntawm Hiav Txwv Liab, thiab tam sim no Strait of Hormuz fallout. Qhov no tsis yog peb thawj rodeo, thiab nws yuav tsis yog peb lub xeem.
Yog li txawm tias koj tab tom xa khoom FCL lossis LCL, dej hiav txwv lossis huab cua, los ntawm Tuam Tshoj mus rau lub ntiaj teb lossis los ntawm Tebchaws Europe mus rau Asmeskas-thov hu rau peb. Peb yuav muab rau koj ncaj qha tham txog tus nqi, cov kev xaiv tiag tiag, thiab ib txoj kev npaj ua haujlwm tiag tiag. Tsis muaj jargon. Tsis muaj fluff. Tsuas yog freight uas txav.
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