Rau kev lag luam koom nrog peb - Mev Mexico lag luam, ib zaug-kwv yees ntws ntawm cov khoom yog tam sim no musnograting Labyrinth ntawm kev paub tsis meej. Tusrestrgence ntawm Asmeskas kev tiv thaivThiab cov neeg ua haujlwm zoo nkauj tas li yog tsim cov headwind tseem ceeb rau cov kev coj ua kev zoo ntawm ob haiv neeg.
Qhov xwm txheej yog ib txoj cai sib xyaw ntawm txoj cai hloov, ua ntej {{{}} Cov tswv yim thov kev xa khoom, tawm hauv ntau lub tuam txhab nkag siab nrog yuav ua li cas npaj rau yav tom ntej. Kab lus no tsoo tawm txoj kev sib tw tam sim no thiab lawv txhais li cas rau yav tom ntej ntawm North American lag luam.
Tus tariff tangle: lub hom phiaj txav
Cov tub ntxhais ntawm qhov tsis meej pem dag dag nyob rau hauv cov tshiab thiab hem cov nyiaj se.
- Hlau thiab Aluminium TARIFFS:Nyob rau hauv ib qho tseem ceeb txav, cov se ntawm txawv teb chaws txawvHlau Thiab Aluminium, cov tswv yim tseem ceeb rau ntau qhov kev lag luam, tsis ntev los noob npaug ntawm 25% rau 50%Cov. Qhov no ncaj qha nce cov nqi tsim khoom rau Mev cov tuam ntxhab cia ntawm cov ntaub ntawv no.
- Automotive Sector Secector Ntsuas:Kev lag luam automotive, lub pobzeb ntawm Asmeskas-Mexico lag luam, muaj nyob hauv qab lim. Thaum USMCA cov lus pom zoo muab qee qhov kev tiv thaiv, muaj cov khoom lag luam rauAutomotive Cheebtsam thiab tshebCov. Qhov no tau coj mus rau qhov tseem ceeb7.1% xyoo {- ntawm -} xyoo poobHauv Mev Automotive xa tawm mus rau Asmeskas nyob rau lub Plaub Hlis, lom zem ntau rau cov khoom muag gluts tom qab thawj zaug} lub quarter nrawm ntawm kev cia siab.
- Lub "Tuam Tshoj Factor":Cov teeb meem ua kom tiav ntxiv yog Asmeskas kev txhawj xeeb tshaj Suav teb siv Mexico ua tus kis las mus rau Asmeskas kev ua lag luam. Hauv teb, Mexico muaj nws tus kheej raug yuam ib50% TMIFF ntawm cov tsheb txawv los ntawm tsis- free {2} Cov teb chaws kev lag luam, suav nrog SuavCov. Thaum qhov no tiv thaiv kev lag luam hauv zos, nws tseem kho hluav taws xob ntxiv thiab ntxiv lwm txheej ntawm cov kev cai ua rau cov neeg hloov pauv.
Qhov kev tsis sib xws ntawm cov ntawv thov tsim cov "nres {{{}}} pib" ib puag ncig. Raws li tau sau tseg los ntawm ib pab pawg nyiaj txiag, thaum nruab nrab tshaj tawm Asmeskas TariD ntawm Mev cov khoom yog 14.24%, hauv kev xyaum, cov nqi tsuas yog siv rau16% ntawm Mev xa tawm, tawm hauv cov lag luam nyob rau hauv lub xeev tsis tu ncua uas tsis paub tseeb txog dab tsi tus nqi ntawm kev lag luam yog dab tsi.
Economic Whiplash: Los ntawm Cov Ntaub Ntawv Hights los tsim kom qeeb
Qhov cuam tshuam ntawm cov cai no yog twb pom hauv cov ntaub ntawv lag luam. Tom qab ib lub sijhawm zoo tshaj plaws resilience uas pomCov neeg Mev xa tawm mus rau Asmeskas tsoo cov ntaub ntawv siab ntawm $ 264 billion hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm 2025, cov cim qhia txog kev qeeb yog tshwm sim.
Qhov taw qhia tseem ceeb ntawm cov teeb meem yav tom ntej yog a7.3% poob rau hauv peev peev khoom)Mus rau Mexico, hais qhia tias yav tom ntej tsim tawm cov zis yuav yuav poob qis. Qhov no tau xav txog lub Tsib Hlis 2025, thaum Mexico qhov kev xa tawm tag nrho pom a0.4% {{- ntawm -} xyoo txo, tsav loj los ntawm ib tug ntse9% poob rau hauv Auto xa tawm .
Qhov tshwm sim ntawm"Pre6 -} emptive shipping"muaj kev ua lag luam ntxiv. Nyob rau hauv kev cia siab ntawm cov kev muaj peev xwm se, ntau lub tuam txhab pem hauv ntej- Tsis muaj qhov tshwm sim ib ntus hauv kev thov thiab zawm cov peev xwm. Thaum ntawd nthwv dej dhau mus, qhov tsis muaj zog hauv kev thov, ua rau muaj kev tshaj tawm kom qeeb. Qhov no whiplash cov nyhuv ua rau nws nyuaj heev rau cov neeg nqa khoom thiab cov neeg muab kev pab cuam los tswj muaj peev xwm thiab nqi siab zoo.
Cov duab liab qab ua: USMCA tshuaj xyuas
Ntxiv rau cov khoom plig tam sim ntawd yog qhov yuav rov qab saib xyuas Tebchaws Asmeskas {}} mexico - kev pom zoo Canada (USMCA). Keeb xeeb teem rau 2026, tusKev tshuaj xyuas tau muaj proactively thawb los ntawm Asmeskas, tau pib thaum ntxovCov. Qhov no tau nce kev lag luam tawm nruj los ntawm kev sib tsoo hla cov se rau cov laj thawj uas muaj peev xwm tswj hwm ntawm kev lag luam Asmeskas kev lag luam.
Cov kws tshuaj ntsuam tawm tswv yim tawm tswv yim Asmeskas yog siv cov kev hem thawj Tariff AsKhom Nqi Chip kom ruaj ntseg ntau cov lus pom zooHauv Tebchaws Asmeskas kev tshuaj xyuas, tshwj xeeb txog "cov kev cai ntawm keeb kwm" rau kev ntsuas kev lag luam thiab ntsuas los daws cov neeg lag luam Asmeskas. Qhov tshwm sim ntawm kev tshuaj xyuas no yuav muaj ntev {{}}}}}}}}}}}}}} kev rov kho dua tshiab ntawm North American cov saw siv hluav taws xob.
Kev tshawb nrhiav qhov tsis paub tseeb: cov tswv yim rau kev ua lag luam
Nyob rau hauv ib puag ncig no ntawm kev ua siab tawv tsis meej pem, kev lag luam tsis muaj peev xwm them taus. Ntawm no yog ob peb lub tuam txhab cov tswv yim yog los tiv thaiv lawv tus ntoo khaub lig- Bergine cov haujlwm:
- Ntxiv dag zog rau kev ua raws li thiab pom tau tias:Nrog cov kev cai tshiab, xws li Mexico lub pre -}}}} effect effect effect on on rau kev ua lag luam tsis ua haujlwm yog tsis {sib ceg. Cov tuam txhab yuav tsum tau nqis peev hauv cov systems uas muab tiag {{3} lub sijhawm pom rau hauv kev tswj hwm lawv cov zaub mov xa tuaj.
- Muaj kev lag luam ntau yam:Mexico yog nquag tshawb xyuas kev ua lag luam sib txawv los txo nws txoj kev cia siab rau Asmeskas rau Asmeskas, uas cov account rau cov kwv yees80% ntawm nws cov kev xa tawmCov. Lub teb chaws xa tawm mus rau Tebchaws Europe, piv txwv li, pom qhov kev tshaj tawm30% nyob rau lub Plaub Hlis 2025Cov. Cov lag luam tuaj yeem ua raws cov kev tshawb fawb nrog lwm tus neeg koom tes, xws li los ntawm kev pom zoo niaj hnub no nrog EU.
- Scenario Kev Npaj:Muab cov tsis tau lees paub, cov tuam txhab yuav tsum tsim cov phiaj xwm kev sib txuas lus ntau yam ntawm USMCCA kev tshuaj xyuas thiab muaj peev xwm tshiab TWIFF kev tshaj tawm. Qhov no suav nrog cov hlua hluav taws xob mapping rau cov kev tsis zoo thiab kho cov chaw muag khoom lossis cov kev thauj khoom lossis cov ntaub ntawv.
Txoj kev ua ntej
Qhov tsis meej pem HobBling Mev Mev nrog nws cov neeg zej zog sab qaum teb yog ntau tshaj li ib ntus kev cuam tshuam; Nws yog qhov tsos mob ntawm kev hloov dav dav hauv kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb ua lag luam thiab kev tiv thaiv kev tiv thaiv. Thaum kev sib xyaw sib sib zog nqus ntawm Asmeskas thiab Mexico ua rau tag nrho- nplai decoupling tsis zoo li tsis zoo, txoj hauv kev yuav raug coj los ntawm kev qhib.
Rau kev lag luam, txoj kev vam meej yuav nyob ntawm cov laus, npaj muaj zog, thiab puas tau hloov pauv ntawm tus ntoo khaub lig- Border kev lag luam. Cov tuam txhab ua lag luam hauv kev nkag siab txog cov ntaub ntawv no yog hnub no yuav yog qhov ua tau zoo tshaj plaws kom vam meej ntawm North American Kev Lag Luam.
